Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

EUR/USD closed lower on Wednesday and is poised to extend this winter's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this winter's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

USD/JPY closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a long-term bottom has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook.

GBP/USD closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

USD/CHF closed higher on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce off the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a long-term high has been posted.